Poker School · lesson 4 of 7 · 9 min
Whether a draw is worth chasing, worked out at the table in seconds.
Counting outs
An out is a card that makes your hand. Count them, and you can put a number on how often you get there.
| Draw | Outs |
|---|---|
| Flush draw (four to a suit) | 9 - the other nine of that suit |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 - four of each rank on either end |
| Gutshot straight draw | 4 - only one rank fills it |
| Two overcards | 6 - three each to pair either one |
| Set looking to fill up | About 7 on the turn |
The rule of 2 and 4
Multiply your outs by 2 for the chance of hitting on the next card. Multiply by 4 for the chance across both the turn and the river, which only applies when you are already all in and will see both.
A flush draw on the flop: 9 outs. About 18 percent to hit on the turn, about 36 percent to get there by the river. Close enough to the real numbers (19 and 35) to make decisions with.
Outs to percentages, in full
The rule of 2 and 4 is close enough to decide with. These are the real numbers, for when you want to check your shortcut against them.
| Outs | By the turn / by the river |
|---|---|
| 1 | 2% / 4% |
| 2 | 4% / 8% |
| 3 | 7% / 13% |
| 4 (gutshot) | 9% / 17% |
| 5 | 11% / 20% |
| 6 (two overcards) | 13% / 24% |
| 7 | 15% / 28% |
| 8 (open-ended) | 17% / 32% |
| 9 (flush draw) | 19% / 35% |
| 12 (flush + gutshot) | 26% / 45% |
| 15 (flush + open-ended) | 33% / 54% |
The right-hand column only applies when you are already all in and will definitely see both cards. If there is another bet coming on the turn, use the left-hand one.
How the common preflop matchups run
Worth knowing roughly, because these are the spots where the money goes in before the flop and people misremember them badly in both directions.
| Matchup | Roughly |
|---|---|
| Pair vs two lower cards | 80 / 20 - e.g. QQ against J-9 |
| Pair vs one over, one under | 70 / 30 - e.g. 88 against A-5 |
| Pair vs two overcards | 55 / 45 - the classic coin flip |
| Pair vs lower pair | 82 / 18 - and barely moves if suited |
| Two overcards vs two unders | 63 / 37 - e.g. A-K against 8-7 |
| Dominated: A-K vs A-Q | 74 / 26 - the kicker is worth that much |
Nothing preflop is a lock. The very best hand is a 4-to-1 favourite against the worst one, and "a coin flip" is not a figure of speech - a pair against two overcards really is close to even.
Comparing it to the price
Pot odds are what you have to pay against what you can win. If the pot holds $80 and someone bets $20, you are paying $20 into a pot that will be $120, so you need to win about 17 percent of the time to break even.
With a flush draw and one card to come you are around 19 percent. Nineteen beats seventeen, so calling is correct. Reverse the numbers and it is not.
Chasing a draw is not a personality flaw or a virtue. It is arithmetic: hit often enough to cover the price and it is a call, otherwise it is a fold.
